MLS week 3

[rolltide]

4-2 +6.83 (staked 26.73, +25.5%)

early bet for Sunday...more to come:

Colorado vs DC United
- The defending champs, Colorado, are 2-0-0 and still getting no respect as they should be a solid 1.60 against DC. Colorado didn't do a whole lot last week to beat Chivas 1-0 on the road but missing both Cummings & Casey up front they played great defense and didn't even allow a shot until an hour was played. Now they're back home where they're nearly invincible, playing in altitude against a team on b2b trips, and will have both Casey and Cummings returning in attack against a reserve central defense pairing at DC. With Perry Kitchen is captaining the US team at the concacaf u20 tournament and Dejan Jakovic is suspended DC must use two reserves in central defense against the league's top striking tandem. The Rapids did lose in the US Open Cup in midweek but swapped out 10 starters from the Chivas USA match so it was a fully reserve team effort. DC was actually the last team to win in Colorado when they shocked the Rapids 1-0 last October which is also the last time Colorado lost a MLS game home or away, so revenge will be on their minds as will a tough trip coming up. After Sunday's match the Rapids hit the road for Dallas and Real Salt Lake who are two of the league's top teams so a home win here is very important.

Colorado 4u -125

 

[rolltide]

Saturday night matches:

RBNY vs Houston
- The Red Bulls get a half dozen guys back that missed out last week though Thierry Henry, as always, is questionable with an injury but expected to start. So with their best 11 ready they are one of the class teams in the league and should have their way with Houston who are a lucky 0-1-1. They had no business taking a point from Seattle where they were dominated to the tune of 24-6 shots and 12-1 corners but were saved with some shoddy finishing which they won't get from Agudelo, Rodgers, Richards, Lindpere, and Henry. Houston will have exact same lineup as in Seattle with Jamaican defender Taylor out again but this time due to an injury suffered in midweek international. What sets RBNY apart from every other MLS team is no other squad has a central defense pair like Ream and Marquez who play the ball up to the MF and FW so well. They play a very fast game and then have incredible speed on the wings to put the defense under a lot of pressure. Tally Hall saved a point for Houston in Seattle but way too many good finishers on the Red Bulls to have that happen again especially if they allow another 24 shots and a dozen corners.

RBNY -.75 4u +100


LA Galaxy vs Philadelphia
- The Galaxy were humiliated last week at RSL and they have to respond on Saturday night as Ricketts, Gonzalez, and Donovan all return to the club. They could face a Union team missing their most important players as Le Toux, Califf, Mapp, and Valdes are all carrying injuries and questionable for the match. Of course their offense runs through Le Toux and then Mapp is their only solid wide player while Califf and Valdes are their starting central defenders so to play an angry LA team without those guys could be very bad. Add to this that striker Carlos Ruiz played on Saturday against Vancouver then traveled home to play 90 minutes against Bolivia on Tuesday and now travels back to Philly only to make a cross-country trip to LA and you'd have to think he'll be running on fumes. The Philly backline hasn't allowed a goal this season which is remarkable considering their 2010 performance but really big test against JP Angel, Barrett, Donovan, Beckham, and Juninho and one that I can't see them passing. Last year LA won both matches against Philly and jumped out to a 3-0 HT lead at home and coasted to a 3-1 win which is a similar scoreline I predict for Saturday night with a solid 2-0 Galaxy win. Since joining the MLS they've allowed at least 2 road goals in 12 of their 15 games and although LA are a better road team than home team I see them winning pretty convincingly in this one. Donovan played 90 minutes in both the US friendly matches so he'll be playing his 3rd game in a week but other than him this team should be fully fit and motivated. The one thing most impressive about Arena's teams is they rarely lose two games in a row whether it was with DC United, the USMNT, or LA. Since June 2009 the Galaxy have lost 12 games and are 9-2-1 in the following match allowing just 6 goals. It remains to be seen what role Le Toux, Califf, Mapp, Valdes, and Ruiz will play on Saturday night but even a fully fit Philly shouldn't trouble an embarrassed Galaxy team. I prefer the straight win over -1 asian HC.

LA Galaxy 3u -165

 

[rolltide]

Toronto FC vs Chivas USA
- I rate CUSA as having the worst forwards in MLS and their attack just suffered another blow only 15 minutes ago when it was announced that attacking MF, Dwayne DeRosario, has been traded to the Red Bulls for Borman and Tchiani. DeRosario already scored and assisted on a goal this year and led the team with 15 goals scored last year but he's now gone leaving an unfit De Guzman to partner with Tchiani who is not an offensive player. Defensively they played well last week after a dreadful 1st half against Vancouver but overall I like their back four though Attakora is doubtful in defense. Chivas USA scored 2 in first game in loss to KC but didn't record a shot for an hour in home match to Colorado last week as attacking midfield, Blair Gavin, went out with a hamstring injury. He's missing tomorrow which means their MF is horrendous and only Braun is dangerous for them up front. They'll be missing both defensive MF Nagamura and central defender Conrad so I expect them to play a very retreated defense to cover these missings. De Rosario easily led TFC in goals and shots last year, and again this year, and it's going to take a lot of time for TFC to put an offense together without him as everything flowed through DeRo. Chivas USA tougher to predict as this is their first road game and they've allowed 6 goals in their 3 competitive matches plus with horrible Baldomero Toledo doing the game (known for calling phantom penalties) I can just go small on this total.

TFC/CUSA under 2.5 1.5u -140

 

[guil0000]

Nice write ups bol tomorrow!

 

[acehigh]

Wow, MLS lines look really solid today. With you on the Galaxy though rolltide, think they bounce back today. Also like Colorado tommorow. Good luck

 

[rolltide]

New England vs Portland
- really not sure what to make of this crazy odds move but New England were 1.5-1.6 and now over evens for the match. Portland in a really bad position having to play b2b east coast games with a match midweek as well since they used 8 starters to beat Chivas USA this week in US Open Cup match. We're talking about 2 three-time-zone trips in a week plus a midweek match which is unheard of in this league. Portland aren't a whole lot worse than New England, in my estimation, but they are inferior and no reason for people to be betting on an expansion team in an away game playing for the 3rd time in a week. I don't think much of the Revs for sure but these odds are now quite a bit off versus my estimation. Portland weren't competitive in Colorado and lost at Toronto with pretty even level of play and one point is the max they can take today. Gotta take the home team here.

New England 3u +102

 

[hm2.0]

I agree on the Rapids play. Davies and Simms out for DCU.

It will snow and so you could see a sloppy, stodgy affair.

 

[hm2.0]

Almost forgot. Colorado has both Casey and potential replacement Folan as quest.

 

[rolltide]

Col 4-1 +4
RBNY 1-1 -4
LA 1-0 +3
TFC 1-1 +1.5
NE 1-1 -3


7-4 +8.33 (staked 45.78, +18.2%)

 

[Going4Broke]

Great weekend. Thanks for all you do rolltide!